Friday, 9 November 2018

Midterms 2018 roundup



Gage Skidmore (CC BY-SA 2.0) via Wikimedia Commons


The Midterm elections are over. Americans have had their say for the first time since the 2016 Presidential election, electing members for the House of Representatives and the Senate. Pundits talk of blue or red waves, and experts speculate about the ramifications, but what is the state of things?

1.) The Democrats may have seen their best midterm gains since Watergate


It's not unusual for the incumbent party to lose seats in the House of Representatives in the midterms. The Democrats lost an eye-watering 63 seats in the 2010 midterms, something that undermined President Obama for the remainder of his first time. One of the many things that resulted from this gridlock was the debt ceiling crisis the following August, when the US ultimately lost its top-notch credit rating with one of the leading agencies. The Democrats lost another dozen seats in 2014, before gaining half a dozen in 2016. This time round, the Democrats may have gained at least 30 seats, which would be the biggest gain for them since 1974, the year President Nixon resigned over the Watergate scandal.

The precise numbers won't be known for a while, but we know for sure that the Democrats won the popular vote in the House of Reps. This suggests the blue wave scenario came true.

2.) The Senate eludes Democrats, and may remain so for a little bit longer


The House of Reps, which are the US equivalent of a lower house, flipped to the Democrats, but the Senate, or upper house, remains under Repblican control. In fact, the Democrats lost 3 senate seats, in a Senate race that was among one of the hardest for them to fight in many long years. It sounds like a small amount, but given the size of the Senate, each seat has a bigger proportional significance. The Senate matters, as it will prove crucial in the selection of Supreme Court justices.

As we saw with the Kavanaugh nomination in recent weeks, the Senate ultimately plays the most important role. Why did the Senate vote play out the way it did this year? In large part, it was the timing. The Democrats had to defend 26 seats this time, compared to just 9 for the GOP. Very unlucky for the Democrats, in other words. Based on the timings for future votes, some have even remarked that the Senate could remain under Republican control until 2022.

3.) The economy didn't matter as much as people thought


The American economy has been growing continuously since the middle of 2009, when it emerged from the global financial crisis. Growth has been quite decent by post-GFC standards. The US economy's trend growth rate is probably around 1.5-2% or so, and the economy has enjoyed a growth spurt of around 2.5-3% under Trump. As a result of this buoyant economy, the official level of unemployment has dropped to 3.7% , a level not seen since 1969. Wage growth is picking up, to about 3.1% according to some metrics. Much of this success has been due to a tax cut introduced in December 2017.

The stock market is Trump's favourite barometer of success. It has been somewhat turbulent in 2018, but has managed to hit all-time highs on a number of trading sessions. The boom in stocks has generated massive sums of money like a money printing machine, and Trump is keen to boast this as a sign of better things to come. The awkward reality is that a small number of average Americans own stocks. The average worker in the US is still earning less than they did in 1978, in real terms. Trump fed off the discontent of Rust Belt communities to reach the White House in 2016. Now, he's fallen into the trap of taking all the credit for the irrational exuberance on Wall Street. Trump has taken credit for the boom. If the trade war with China does deliver a blow to growth, Trump will find himself having to explain the bust.

The Trump administration seems to have adopted the mantra of the Clinton era of the late 1990s (it's the economy, stupid) and seeks to trumpet any positive statistics for all their worth, but it risks ignoring other issues that voters actually care about. A case in point is this: in an exit poll on the eve of the the 2018 Midterm elections,  over 40% of voters cited healthcare as the most important motivation behind their vote. Only 21% thought the economy was a leading concern.

4.) Trump's relationship with the media is at rock-bottom





Over three years after Mr Trump descended that escalator in Trump Tower, a plethora of catchphrases and Orwellian terms have entered the public consciousness. "Fake news", "alternative facts", "the swamp" and "enemies of the people", to name a few. President Trump has had one of the most acrimonious relationships with the press, and it's unlikely to change anytime soon, as evidenced by this clip above.

When confronted by the press over his party's losses, Trump speculated about how division in Washington might actually benefit him more, as if the whole thing was some kind of calculated PR move than an actual expression of democracy. Behind closed doors, he is most likely frustrated by things not going his way, and his short temper, as evidenced by the spat with CNN's Jim Acosta and a few other journalists in the press conference reveals the insecurity he is probably sensing after this experience at the polls.

President Trump is in a unique position, as his Presidency is directly influenced and shaped by its own echo chamber, Fox News. Fox News has existed since the mid-1990s, and its drip-feeding of conspiracy theories and its dosage of neo-conservative commentary over the years has given it a sizeable fanbase, mostly among ageing white Americans. Fox News has an increasingly antagonistic relationship with its media rivals, and this is spilling over into the Presidency. Trump has unwavering faith in Fox News, and openly lambasts the rest of the media, or in his words, the "mainstream media".

Trump's alleged appetite for television has thrown up an intriguing theory, as suggested here. Could Trump's usual 6-9am daily burst of Twitter activity be related to the fact that the Fox News show "Fox & Friends" airs during that 3-hour slot?

5.) The GOP of Lincoln and Reagan is dead


An intriguing phenomenon has occurred in US politics since the 20th Century. Politics has undoubtedly become increasingly polarised, and much of this comes from the GOP drifting further to the right. As evidenced here, Republicans elected to the House rapidly became very conservative, while the Democrats have slowly become more liberal. As a result, an ever-widening gulf has merged in American politics. Some have fallen through the gaps, feeling a sense of political homelessness, as the party they spent most of their life working to build disintegrates and changes into something unrecognisable.

The late John McCain was a classical example of this. Ten years ago, he was the man the Republicans chose to lead them into the 2008 elections against Barack Obama. Within a decade, McCain was locked in a war of words with President Trump while dying from brain cancer. Trump had incensed many for suggesting McCain wasn't a war hero as he had been captured. In one of his final acts as a Senator, McCain sabotaged Trump's 2017 attempt to dismantle Obamacare. McCain went to the grave without an apology from Trump for his remarks.

Republican President Abraham Lincoln oversaw the abolition of slavery in the US. In the 1984 election, President Reagan campaigned for re-election under the slogan "morning in America", as the economy emerged from the era of stagflation in the 1970s. It used to be optimistic once. In contrast, Trump has painted a bleak picture of America, as we saw in his inauguration speech. Gone is the hopey-changey era. He focuses on the decay in society, talking of corruption, fomenting distrust of institutions including the media, and scare-mongering, by claiming that a rising tide of illegal migrants is threatening to burst across the borders at any moment. The so-called caravan serves as an example.

Dissent within the party is risky. The party's Senators and Representatives have more of less gone along with the programme so far. Ted Cruz, for example, got into a war of words with Trump during the GOP candidate primaries, but he is a loyal servant of the Trump cause now, at least in public. Voices of opposition have been microscopic needles in a haystack.

The party has fallen onto a default setting of promoting the idea of lower taxes and an overly-simplistic/traditional view of American society, rallying around Trump as the party's saviour. It's unclear what solid foundations will remain when he goes. The current administration's economic policies are certain to leave the US with a high debt burden with no plans to pay for it, and the party's social outlook ignores the reality that America is more diverse than ever before, but it doesn't intend to accommodate to other ways of thinking. This should be ringing alarm bells.

Saturday, 11 August 2018

The Suez Crisis (1956-57)


Anthony Eden, Prime Minister (1955-57)

Suez: the forgotten crisis. In our Brexit-obsessed 24-hour news era, it just isn’t that interesting to think about 1950s Britain. Black and white television, the end of rationing. Those are probably some of the things you think about if you cast your mind back to that era. The Suez crisis was possibly one of the most pivotal moments of the decade, and yet it is one of those historical events that seems to pass most people by.

In the 1950s, the Conservatives were riding high. Churchill, Britain’s wartime leader, had been able to stage the mother of all comebacks in 1951, having been swept out of power by the Labour landslide of 1945. Six years of post-war inflation and continuing rationing, plus a devaluation of the Pound, ushered in a period of entrenched Conservative rule from 1951 onwards. The Korean War dominated headlines in 1950-53, but with the Cold War in progress, conflicts like the Korean War had a habit of coming to a standstill, as superpowers turned their attention to different parts of the world.

By 1955, Churchill had retired from the political stage, having started his political career as a Liberal in the 1900s. The welfare state, including the NHS, remained in place, almost a decade after it had been put in place. Churchill had come to accept the actions of his predecessors, and entered retirement after a long and eventful life in politics. Anthony Eden, Churchill’s Foreign Secretary, emerged as the man to lead the Conservatives into the 1955 general election.

By this time, the Conservatives had managed to unwind rationing and the economy was enjoying something of an economic boom. Unemployment had fallen to a low of 1% (that’s right) and wages were soaring at a rate of 6.8%. However, a concerning trend was starting to emerge - a trend that would bring an end of the cosy post-war consensus of governments. Stagflation was starting to rear its head, even in 1955.

UK workers were less productive than French, German or Japanese ones. Infrastructure was stifling growth, and booms were unsustainable. Britain was slowly losing its empire, and its political elite was dominated by a generation of men born during the reign of Queen Victoria. The “sick man of Europe” moniker has its origins in this period, as the country was starting to drift along in the economic slow-lane, outpaced by more dynamic neighbours on all sides.

High wages and low productivity were resulting in an increasing rate of inflation, putting pressure on Sterling. Eden managed to secure victory in the 1955 general election, largely as a result of the boom, but as his premiership progressed, stagflation became embedded in the economic picture, impeding his government’s progress.

By 1956, Eden’s government was presiding over a weakening economy. Growth was ebbing away and his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Harold Macmillan, was raising interest rates, to prevent inflation rising further. One of the worst ways for a government to enter into a crisis is when it is distracted by economic weakness. Eden literally couldn’t afford to make a mistake in 1956.

Meanwhile in Egypt



The Suez Canal


The Suez Canal was, and still is, one of the great transport routes on the planet. Its existence allows cargo ships to move from the South Indian Ocean, through the Red Sea and up into the Mediterranean, sparing a costly journey around Africa. By the 1950s, the canal was a lifeline to the global economy, which was becoming increasingly dependent on a steady flow of cheap oil.

In the early-1950s, Britain was attempting to ameliorate relations with Egypt by ending British rule in Sudan, on the condition that Egypt would surrender its control over the Nile Valley region. By 1954, Britain had agreed to slowly withdraw British troops from the canal region in phases. Ultimately, the aim was for the canal to fall under the jurisdiction of the Egyptian government by November 1968. At least that was the original idea. History had other plans.

In Egypt, change was in the air. 1956 was a year of political upheaval for the country, as it had drafted a new constitution, in which it was decided that the people should be led by a single-party system. Gamal Abdel Nasser became President of Egypt in June 1956. Just four years before, the people had overthrown the monarchy, establishing the Republic of Egypt.

Major shifts in the running of nations were watched with great interest at the height of the Cold War by the likes of Washington and Moscow. Any sign of upheaval abroad was of great interest. Both sides were anxious to ensure that developing countries followed their model of development, and each new hotspot risked being the battleground to a proxy war, or worse: a war to end all wars.

The United States was gearing up for a Presidential election in 1956. It entered into the Suez crisis under the leadership of Republican President Dwight “Ike” Eisenhower, a five-star army general who had served as Supreme Commander of the Allied Expeditionary Forces in Europe during the Second World War. America had entered into the post-war world in an ideal position. It was now the richest country on the planet, and had overseen the reconstruction of Europe (through the Marshall Plan).

In 1955, the UK, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and Turkey opted to sign up to an agreement that would later be dubbed the Baghdad Pact, an agreement that effectively served as a means of containing the USSR and preventing it from making incursions into the Middle East. Nasser was concerned by the pact’s apparent Iraq-centric bias, resulting in him taking an anti-Western stance from 1955 onwards.

In his eyes, the Baghdad Pact was a mere extension of Western colonial ambitions, a means to meddle in the development of developing nations. Egypt’s signing of an arms deal with Czechoslovakia, a Soviet-bloc state, in September 1955 raised alarm bells in Britain. Nasser was signalling that Egypt no longer required the West to arm itself. Britain and her allies perceived Egypt to be edging ever closer to the Soviet Union with each passing minute.

In mid-May 1956, Nasser decided to recognise the nascent People’s Republic of China, a country that had only existed as a Communist state since 1949. Nasser’s actions angered the United States; Eisenhower believed Nasser had done this as part of a broad plan to play the West against the Soviets and he moved to cancel US funding for the construction of the Aswan Dam, a structure Egypt was planning to build in order to ensure the industrialisation of its economy.

The move was made known on 19th July 1956. Eisenhower’s logic behind this move was to force the Soviets to come to Nasser’s aid in paying for the Dam instead, which had the potential to put a strain on the USSR financially, owing to the monumental cost it would require to build.

Just a week later, on 26th July 1956, Nasser gave a televised speech in which, through the use of a codeword, he ordered the seizure and nationalisation of the Suez Canal. Upon uttering the name “Ferdinand de Lesseps” (the man who built the canal), Egyptian forces stormed into the Suez Canal Company headquarters and nationalised it. Shipping by Israel was blocked from moving through the Canal, as well as being blocked through various other routes.

The move sent shockwaves throughout the world. It seemed to come out of the blue. By this time, Eden was in the midst of an addiction to a powerful painkiller, drynamil, otherwise known as “purple hearts”, following a botched medical procedure in 1953. The drug was eventually banned in 1978, and many consider its side effects to include hallucinations, paranoia and becoming disconnected from reality.

Eden had grown increasingly suspicious of Nasser, and now that the canal had been nationalised, his worst fears appeared to have come true. The seizure of the Canal risked cutting off Britain from supplies of oil, and risked economic meltdown in his eyes.

In the early days after the nationalisation, the groundswell of public opinion appeared to support some kind of response, but interestingly, some were more cautious about what this response should be. Labour leader Hugh Gaitskell went as far as to compare Nasser to Hitler, before changing his tune. By August, Gaitskell was keen to ensure that Eden would not intervene militarily, and believed Eden’s reassurances on the matter. Stressing the importance of the UN Charter (barely a decade old at the time), Gaitskell wanted to make sure any response by Britain was rational and not open to condemnation by the international community.

However, concerns mounted that, if the blockage continued for another couple of years, with a dwindling supply of fresh oil, in the words of Ambassador Sir Ivone Fitzpatrick: “Our gold reserves will disappear…the Sterling area will disintergrate…”. Despite this threat, the US seemed unwilling to get involved, and yet it became clear that any overt move by Britain to intervene in Egypt, to reclaim the canal, would risk condemnation from the US and the rest of the international community. Thus, a secret pact was born.

The French Fourth Republic was in its final days by the time the Suez Crisis had started. France was led by a series of unstable governments, prone to collapse. Violence had flared up in Algeria, and its Prime Minister, Guy Mollet, was determined not to lose influence over developments in Egypt. Mollet’s views were shared by much of the French public, and by 29th July 1956, the French Cabinet had agreed to take military action against Nasser, in agreement with the Israelis. The French extended an invitation for Britain to join in the intervention if Eden wished.

Between July-October 1956, the US tried and failed to implement initiatives to de-escalate tensions between the key players, and the UK and France grew closer in their determination to act, when it appeared that the Americans were offering no willingness to act themselves. An informal meeting between Chancellor Harold Macmillan and President Eisenhower in September 1956 did much to muddy waters over the whole matter.

Macmillan was under the impression that the US wouldn’t oppose the toppling of Nasser. In actual fact, the US was vehemently opposed to any act of aggression against Egypt. Such aggression would simply reinforce the archaic notion that the West hadn’t gotten over its imperialist tendencies.

Eden went into the Suez crisis, wrongly assuming that French-British military action would be tolerated by the States. Britain’s motivations for intervention centred around it perceiving Nasser’s actions as a form of obstruction. By cutting the Suez Canal off, Britain would lose prestige. It would look as if Britain had not only lost its empire, but also its control of trade routes and access to power supplies.

The French were convinced that Nasser had played a role in destabilising Algeria, and wanted to act in order to prevent any of its other North African territories being destabilised by him. Israel entered into the conflict, hoping to restore access to trade routes. Israel was also concerned about Egypt as an increasingly militaristic actor, and sought to use an intervention to strategically weaken it.



Tory backbenchers grew increasingly restless about the situation in 1956, with many seeing stark parallels with the Chamberlain government’s appeasement of Hitler in the late 1930s. It wasn’t until October 1956 that members of the British, French and Israeli governments met in secret, to establish a clear strategy to handle Nasser’s canal seizure. Assembling in the town of Sèvres, these figures organised an invasion plan where Israel would attack first, by sending troops to the Sinai. Britain and France would wait before sending in their troops, using them to secure the canal under the pretext that they had come to separate the warring Israeli and Egyptian troops. The plan was dubbed the “Protocol of Sèvres”.

Each country retained a copy of the protocol, signed in French. It wasn’t long before news of the agreement was leaked. Within four days of the signing, Israel initiated the first stage of the conflict, sending its air force over the Sinai. Paratroopers were dropped into the region with air support, to counteract Egyptian air force attacks. Phase Two kicked in on 31st October 1956, when the British and the French ordered Egyptian and Israeli forces to stand down.

Operation Musketeer (or Mousquetaire) began in earnest, with the British and French air forces bombing the Egyptian air force, doing great damage to it in the process. The domestic response back in Britain was severe. Labour leader Hugh Gaitskell took to the Commons despatch box during the first fiery debate on Suez, on 1st November, saying: “Is the Minister aware that millions of British people are profoundly shocked and ashamed…that British aircraft should be bombing Egypt, not in self-defence, not in collective defence, but in clear defiance of the United Nations Charter?”. The Hansard entry for the debate records that an MP was heard shouting “fascists” during this segment of Gaitskell’s address, highlighting the mounting tension in Westminster.

The 1st November debate almost descended into an all-out brawl. Gaitskell was incensed that the Prime Minister had spent months claiming no action would be taken against Nasser, only to launch an all-out bombing campaign without any prior warning. Public opinion was quite negative by the time the bombing began. An anti-war march on 4th November assembled at Trafalgar Square, with as many as 30,000 people taking part, ordering Eden to resign immediately.

The Labour Party became firmly anti-war as a result of Eden’s actions, and the BBC offered Gaitskell airtime to address the nation with his views about the mounting crisis. The BBC was facing a dilemma with Suez. In WW2, the threat of the Third Reich was obvious and the BBC was sure about how to cover events.

In 1956, the BBC was aware of the public's anger and the opposition party's position against the government, and ultimately decided to reflect the divisions in society. This move greatly angered Eden. As a sign of how insecure Eden’s government had become over the public perception of the crisis, it briefly considered punishing the BBC in some shape or form, which would have likely led to full government control over its editorial stance. The BBC would face similar backlash in the early 2000s, at the height of the War on Terror saga. In the end, no action was taken against the BBC.

The international response to the crisis was immensely negative. The US was contending with the fallout from a Soviet incursion in Hungary at the time, and the Suez Crisis simply made the West look hypocritical. The US had been lecturing the Soviets about interfering in Hungary, and then Britain went and undermined them by just inflaming tensions in the Middle East. This gave the Soviets something to crow about. The Saudis reacted to the intervention by turning off the oil taps to Britain and France, to cripple them economically. In Pakistan, the British High Commission was burnt to the ground by a crowd of angry protesters.

Eisenhower, disappointed by Britain’s behaviour, opted to punish Eden for his actions. The US began to exert its immense financial power on Britain, effectively crushing it to bring an end to the crisis. When Britain sought financial aid from the IMF, the US managed to deny them access to funds. Eisenhower also threatened to order the US Treasury to sell British government bonds. The UK government risked fiscal disaster, as the move would have resulted in bond yields soaring, something that Eurozone countries suffered from at the height of the 2011 Euro Crisis. At a time when Britain’s debts were immense and its economy was weak, it couldn’t afford to antagonise the people who now held the purse strings.

In Downing Street, a political power play was in progress. Chancellor Harold Macmillan was confirming to the government that the US wasn’t bluffing about selling UK bonds. Macmillan is also alleged to have overblown the whole thing, speculating that it might cause the Pound to crash and drain the Treasury’s reserves, for the UK to suffer systemic disruption of fuel and food, and for the economy to effectively grind to an absolute halt. It is likely that Macmillan was using his position to over-exaggerate the situation in order to force Eden out of office.

The Suez Crisis was just the first of many post-war crises that could have quite possibly triggered WW3. The Soviets indicated they would have to intervene to protect Nasser, possibly launching missiles at France, Britain and Israel. Eisenhower knew that if the Soviets came into direct confrontation with members of NATO, he would no-longer be able to serve as a neutral player and would be obliged to enter the fray as a NATO member, to directly confront the Soviets. History now tells us that the Soviets are unlikely to have actually had the technology to make good on their threats, but at the time, their threats had to be taken seriously, as the technology behind the threats was unlike anything seen before.

On 2nd November, a US-backed resolution was passed by the UN General Assembly, calling for an immediate ceasefire, the withdrawal of combatants behind clearly-defined armistice lines, as well as an arms embargo and the re-opening of the Suez Canal. Britain didn’t comply until 6th November, when it finally announced a ceasefire. Forces weren’t expected to fully withdraw from the fray until December 1956, and by the spring of 1957, the Canal was finally re-opened, almost a year after the whole crisis had begun.

Eden’s political fate was now sealed. In the midst of this firestorm, Eden opted to take a holiday in Jamaica, and just two days after he announced a ceasefire, he survived a vote of confidence in Parliament. His health spiralled in the ensuing weeks, and a consensus formed that he had misled Parliament, the country and the world at large. He was condemned by some for going into Egypt, and he was condemned by some on his own side for pulling out through the ceasefire before even reaching his objectives. Eden’s Jamaican holiday simply allowed Macmillan to cement his position back in Westminster, and by the time Eden had returned from holiday in December, his days in office were numbered.

Government papers from 1956 were declassified in 1987, revealing that the Cabinet had been fully aware about plans for the operation on 23rd October, but Eden had defiantly claimed to Parliament that his government had no foreknowledge of any planned Israeli invasion. On 9th January 1957, Eden resigned on health grounds, and Harold Macmillan succeeded him as Prime Minister. Macmillan or “Super Mac” as some would dub him, would lead the country for the next six years. The economy would soften in 1958, but he led the Tories to yet another electoral victory in 1959, on the back of yet another economic boom.

Macmillan would claim during his tenure that Brits had never had it so good, and the people would believe him. He performed an electoral miracle for the Tories, and the blame for Suez was firmly lodged at Eden’s door. Eden would live well into his eighties, passing away in 1977 after a battle with cancer. Macmillan’s premiership would usher in a period of decolonisation; the countries that once made up the British Empire started to gain independence, and as the UK sought to recover lost ground economically, it allowed people from the Commonwealth to emigrate to the UK to boost the labour force.

The Suez crisis wasn’t the cause of Britain’s 20th Century decline, but simply a symptom of it. The age of empire was long gone and the decline in British influence arguably started in the 1920s, when Britain emerged from WW1. America was calling the shots now and it had no time for a country like Britain stirring up trouble in the Middle East during a tense period in geopolitical history. Suez was a turning point. To paraphrase someone, Britain had lost its empire but hadn’t found a role yet.

Tuesday, 21 November 2017

Pre-Autumn Budget 2017 - Things to look out for


Photo by Sgt. Aaron Hostutler, U.S. Marine Corps (Flickr) / CC BY

It's time for red boxes, stats galore and best-laid plans for the economy. That can only mean one thing: it's almost Budget Day.


Philip "Spreadsheet Phil" Hammond, Chancellor of the Exchequer is to give his first autumn budget, laying out the expectations for growth, government spending and a bunch of other statistics, along with a handful of eye-catching policy announcements to chew on. What issues are at play going into the new budget?

1.) Expectations for growth may be lowered


One of the main topics that will be spun during and after the budget is the forecast for UK GDP growth from 2018 and beyond. In days of old, economists estimated that the UK economy had a trend growth rate of about 2.8% per year. Much of that was thanks to growth in the labour force, but the bulk of the figure stemmed from productivity (the measure of how productive UK workers are). However, productivity and by association, GDP growth in general have taken a bit of a knock since the global financial crisis in 2008.

Productivity is a structural economic component that takes years to shift in a meaningful way. (As a sidenote, President Trump claims he can shift US GDP growth from 2% to 4% or higher, but is unlikely to do so for the following reason). Labour force growth, another major component of economic growth, is a demographic/social issue. Governments have much less control over how the population shifts within a country's borders, unless they adopt draconian policies like one-child policies or severely restrict immigration.

Bringing this back to the UK's situation. Productivity growth has averaged just 0.8% a year since 2010. Growth in the labour force has fallen a bit to 0.5% in recent times. Combine productivity with labour force growth and you get a possible potential growth rate of just 1.3% for the UK. That's right, potential growth is likely to be half what it once was. One of the things to watch out for in the budget is the likelihood of the forecast growth being below 2%, something that Chancellors would have thought unthinkable in the past.

2.) The budget deficit persists

Since the early 2000s, the UK government has consistently spent more money than it received in tax revenues. As a result, it has borrowed billions of Pounds, sending the national debt above £1.6trn. The financial crash blew a hole in the government budget, causing an annual deficit of over £150bn in 2009. In recent times, the Tory-Lib Dem and now Tory governments have whittled it down with a combination of gruelling spending cuts and controversial tax rises. The last Chancellor pledged to eliminate the deficit by the time of the 2015 election. The 2015 election came and went and the government is still running a deficit of about £40bn since April 2017.

Fresh data today may provide a headache for the Chancellor. Borrowing was marginally higher than expected in the latest release. We have just a few more hours to wait before we see what numbers the Chancellor will pull out of his red box. Can he make sure he pulls the budget itself out of the red too?

3.) Unemployment is down but wages are falling in real terms

The Chancellor made a gaffe over the weekend on the subject of unemployment. Contrary to his choice of words, 1.4 million Brits are currently out of work. That equates to about 4.3% of the labour force, a level not seen since the mid-1970s. Sounds pretty remarkable on the surface, but what's happened to pay packets for those in work? As unemployment hits this seemingly golden low number, wage growth has failed to pick up, which you'd expect if the labour market was tightening. Since 2008, wages for those in work have failed to keep up with inflation. Wages grew briefly in real terms between 2014-16, but much of this was thanks to a fall in oil prices during that period.

Following the fall in the Pound after the EU referendum, wages have resumed a decline in real terms for many months now. For public sector workers, wages have been frozen close to 1% for years, so the squeeze has been virtually constant since 2008. Private sector workers saw marginally higher wage growth during the same period, but even they are a bit out-of-pocket. Falling wages matter because they supply the Chancellor with tax revenue. If a significant proportion of the working population are seeing wages fall or if they fail to even have a salary high enough to be taxed, his numbers won't add up going forward.

4.) Relationships between PMs and Chancellors matter

The state of a relationship between the occupant of Number 10 and Number 11 can make or break a government. In the Thatcher era, it turned toxic. The Blair years were marred by the tension over Tony Blair's plans after leaving Number 10. David Cameron and George Osborne enjoyed a steadier relationship over 6 years, but when the country voted to leave the EU, they were gone in quick succession.

Theresa May allegedly considered sacking Mr Hammond in the event of a Tory majority in the June elections, according to the Daily Mirror. Obviously this failed to come to pass, and he remains in place for now. This gives the Chancellor and the PM a less than lukewarm set of relations this time round. The budget is seen as a test, a moment of truth for the Chancellor to salvage the government and provide a statement of intent about the government's objectives as Brexit negotiations fill the headlines. One more slip-up and Mrs May could consider replacing him.

Budgets are tests for economic competence of governments. It's hard to keep up-to-date on every economic statistic or to follow every forecast and point out where it went wrong. However, budgets do matter and are often defined by amusing or seemingly minor announcements, such as George Osborne's so-called "pasty tax" from the budget dubbed by his detractors as the "Omnishambles" budget. It all depends on what comes out of the Chancellor's mystery red box...

Sunday, 12 November 2017

Is the government losing its grip?


Photo by © UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor (Flickr) - CC BY

It would be an understatement to say the government has had a bad year; there's still room for things to get even worse before Christmas.



There was a time in the aftermath of the 2015 general election when the Tories appeared unassailable. They had finally broken the curse of the wilderness era and managed to win a majority of seats (albeit a narrow majority). Cameron was riding high in a warm spell of rising real wages. Inflation was at its lowest levels since 1960, when another old Etonian had occupied Number 10, Harold Macmillan (or "Supermac" as the press dubbed him).

Events in the last twelve months have broken this cosy picture asunder. Wages have been falling following the Brexit inflation spike. The economy is still growing but this is more down to the quick-response policies of the Bank of England in the aftermath of the EU referendum. The Pound in our pockets is just what it once was, especially after the referendum. It's gained 9 cents against the Dollar since the October 2016 trough so it's not plumbing the depths right now but millions of Brits have felt their money falling that bit shorter abroad since June 2016.

With this prolonged spell of falling real wages in mind, it's no wonder the snap election was such a disaster if you really think about it. The feel-good factor in May 2015 was long-gone and a new mood of uncertainty has crept in. In place of optimism, the British right-wing allowed itself to adopt a defensive and prickly demeanour. 

The left initially seemed too busy being at war with itself to notice but once Mr Corbyn had cemented his place as Labour leader in the summer of 2016, things seemed more set-in-place. The sections of the press in May's favour spoke of crushing the saboteurs. Judges were dubbed "enemies of the people" and untruths of the referendum campaign (£350m a week et al) suddenly dropped off the headlines. Brexiteers have viewed any moves to scrutinise the Brexit process as sabotage.

The failure to clinch victory in June 2017 served as a shock to the Tory party's nervous system. The populist tide that ensured a Leave victory and Trump's ascent to the White House has now gridlocked the British political system. Discontent has since started to bubble inside the Tory party, to the point where even the Foreign Secretary seems to feel bold enough to dictate the terms of Brexit in a leaked memo to Mrs May. 

It's impossible to speculate on just how many Tory MPs wish Mrs May to stand down. 15% of Tory MPs (48 as of 8th June) are required to hand in a letter to the 1922 Committee chair to trigger no confidence proceedings.  Only the committee chair knows exactly how many letters are on file. However, the Daily Mail reports that as many as 40 MPs may be prepared to do so.

Looming budget to heap the pressure on Downing Street


At the point where the government is in desperate need of respite, the clock is ticking down to the next major hurdle: the autumn budget is unveiled in ten days. Following a grim assessment on the state of the UK's productivity by the Office of Budget Responsibility, it would be reasonable to expect to see a downgrading of UK growth forecasts and a worsening fiscal picture.

Weak wage growth feeds into lower tax revenues. Weaker-than-previously-expected productivity in the future will likely make the UK's national debt a greater burden as a proportion of GDP. Fiscal hawk Brexiteers expecting some kind of Brexit budgetary dividend are setting themselves up for a grand disappointment.

With interest rates finally seeming to be on the rise again, the economy could soften from here. Rates typically rise to encourage saving instead of borrowing. Consumer spending may wane as households tighten belts. Mrs May and Chancellor Phillip Hammond will have to make even harder choices with a paper-thin grasp on control in Parliament as the economy possibly begins to slow. 

The government might be inclined to raise taxes and try and keep the public finances lean in the event of weaker growth. A potential rise in diesel duty has been reported in recent days. It might be pursued promote greener sources of energy. History may start to repeat itself in an economic sense with fatal consequences for the governent. In 1987, the Tories were riding high as the economy boomed after tax cuts and almost a decade of Thatcherism.

Within a year, things got out of hand. Rising inflation by the summer of 1988 pushed Thatcher into a corner and the government responded by hiking interest rates as a knee-jerk reaction. This caused the economy to enter a soft landing; growth slowed, discontent grew and the feel-good-factor was gone. The government began losing its way, introducing toxic policies such as the Poll Tax, one of the most unpopular taxes in British history. Rate hikes in 1988 had the effect of deflating a housing bubble that had developed during the Thatcher era. The Gulf War oil shock of 1990 was the final straw that broke the weak economy's back, sending the UK into a full-blown recession.

The Tories find themselves trapped in a corner again. The economy is likely to soften from here, so any shock could spell trouble. A new election before 2022 will simply compound the sense of electoral fatigue in the country. The Tories might be inclined to wait and see, in the hope that the situation magically rights itself. Unless the UK undergoes a productivity miracle, that remains an increasingly distant chance.

Saturday, 16 September 2017

Boris Johnson, digging for Brexit

Photo by Peter Adams

"If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging" - Anon

The quote above is an old adage, sometimes referred to as former Chancellor of the Exchequer Denis Healey's First Law of Holes. Translated, it essentially means that when you are trapped in an unsustainable position on something, it's best to just admit it and stop dragging it out.

Boris Johnson, UK Foreign Secretary to Her Majesty's Government has surfaced in a flurry of articles in the last few days, having invoked a campaign message from the Vote Leave campaign. He insists that the UK is still in a position to get £350m spare each year to spend on the NHS when it leaves the EU. The problem is that his pledge is built on flawed numbers. The Vote Leave campaign erroneously asserted that EU membership cost the UK something akin to £350m per week, or £50m per day.

Fact-checking website Full Fact debunked this claim almost 2 years ago in the run-up to the referendum, citing the UK Statistics Authority. The number is not a fact, they claimed, saying that it is "potentially misleading". How is this so?

Photo by Peter Adams


Firstly, the UK has received a rebate from the EU for years. The UK also gets some of the money it puts in back from the EU in the form of EU spending on things like agriculture and regional development, to alleviate poverty in the UK's poorest regions. This money we receive back effectively cuts the so-called £350m a week figure roughly in half, according to Full Fact number crunchers.

The Foreign Secretary's comments come at a sensitive time in the life of Theresa May's fragile premiership. Having failed to secure a majority in the snap election in June, Mrs May has since vowed to stay on as Prime Minister until at least the next election, due in May 2022. She made it through the summer, but her poll lead has evaporated almost entirely. Some polls put Labour in the lead by a narrow margin. Some are tied.

The mood within the Conservative Party suggests that the PM's vow to stay might not come to pass, if the party stays true to its ways. Ailing or weakened leaders have typically not lasted a terribly long time and once they lose that shine, the party can make dramatic if not ruthless decisions to ensure its own survival.

In November 1990, Margaret Thatcher vowed to "fight on...fight to win", after narrowly failing to win the first round of a leadership ballot. She resigned as Prime Minister the next day. In October 2003, leader Iain Duncan Smith made an attempt to rescue his failing leadership when he addressed the party faithful at the 2003 conference, saying "I promise you - I will fight, fight and fight again to save the country that I love". He was ousted as leader within the month.

The Foreign Secretary's words come as a form of enticement to leave voters who need encouragement or better still, a reason to vote for the Tories. The election served as a re-alignment for the parties, with UKIP's collapse offering millions of votes to the main parties in a once-in-a-generation opportunity. UKIP is now in the process of evaporating into a super-concentrated version of itself with a smaller audience; it is too busy holding yet another leadership ballot, the third since the referendum, to be in a position to provide meaningful resistance to the main parties' views on Brexit.

Much of this benefited the Tories but increased engagement from younger voters has helped Labour avoid falling behind too much, despite its internal inconsistencies over Brexit. Economic weakness as the Brexit negotiations intensify could be a crunch point for the May administration. Low interest rates have helped keep job creation going but wages are falling in real terms.

Pressure to scrap the 1% wage cap for public sector employees has grown considerably, especially in the NHS, where some have called for a rise of 3.9% to offset the real terms fall in earnings over the last few years. Mrs May's claim that there is no "magic money tree" looks very difficult to comprehend when considering the sudden availability of money to secure the DUP deal and looks like a bad joke, when you realise that £140m of public money got spent on a snap election that the governing party didn't actually win.

The Tories are stuck in a hole and Brexit could bury them when people begin to realise it has resulted in them becoming materially worse off than they otherwise would have been. The Eurozone economy, labelled sclerotic and weak during the referendum campaign is actually growing faster than the UK economy now, according to the latest data. This could be just the beginning of a new chapter in UK history, where the UK economy grows and the government is able to avoid technical recessions, but when it surveys the performance of the UK relative to its peers, it will see how we have underperformed our neighbours, having cut our nose off, despite the face. In this hole, the Foreign Secretary can't resist the urge to get his shovel out and test the ground to dig just a little deeper.

Wednesday, 21 June 2017

Wet or Dry: Can the Tories stand the heat?

Photo by Peter Adams 



As the UK swelters during a week-long heatwave, attention turns to Westminster for the Queen's Speech, the traditional state opening of Parliament.

One week on from the shocking events at Grenfell Tower, such pomp and ceremony feels more at-odds with the mood of the country than before. A series of terrorist attacks in multiple locations in the last couple of months have also changed the tone of political debate, and brought security and defence to the top of the agenda.

Rarely have we seen a government going into this ceremony with such a disappointing draft of proposals. The Conservative project for this year began to come undone during the 2017 election campaign when the social care plans were unveiled, and they began jettisoning parts of the manifesto before a single vote had been cast.

Cancelling free school meals? Gone. The social care plans? Also gone. Grammar schools? It's now up to Parliament to decide how best to improve educational standards as members see fit. Free vote on fox hunting? Not on the agenda anymore. But what about Brexit? The Great Repeal Bill has now been included into the speech, as the UK prepares to leave the European Union, following the triggering of Article 50. Hard Brexit? It might be safe to say the appetite for this is waning. Some of Mrs May's own MPs (as many as 30) have told her to rethink the strategy of no deal being better than a bad deal. Deals with the DUP might revolve around the UK's membership of the Customs Union. Work in progress as of writing.

The main manifesto pledges that have been excised in this Queen's speech are Mrs May's social policies; Mrs May's first speech as Prime Minister was one where she pledged to try and amend the social injustices in the country. Instead, she has bound her own hands, by losing her majority in a snap election she pretended she wouldn't call. Her pre-election promises just don't have the support she needs to get them through Parliament.

The last time the UK had a minority government presenting a Queen's speech was in 1978. James Callaghan was the Labour Prime Minister at the time, presiding over a delicate Labour minority government, which had backing from Liberal MPs in a confidence and supply deal known as the Lib-Lab pact. The deal only lasted a few months and the Liberals eventually withdrew. Callaghan decided not to call an election in late 1978, something Gordon Brown would do himself in 2007. This decision backfired, and following the Winter of Discontent, the emboldened Tories under Mrs Thatcher called a vote of no confidence; they won the motion by one vote. The rest is history.

Minority governments have a habit of being snuffed out by divisions within the governing party sooner or later. Labour's 1979 defeat precipitated a full-on split between Bennites and its centrist faction and led to the formation of the SDP. The resulting chaos this caused plunged the party into a long and weary battle which left deep wounds on both sides.

Mrs May is approaching the DUP in a bid to keep the Tories in government, but she has more to lose from any deal than the DUP. The deal would risk muddling the peace process in Northern Ireland, as the UK government is now likely to be beholden to one of the factions in Northern Ireland's highly sectarian political environment, when it should actually be remaining above the fray and trying to maintain stability.

Mrs Thatcher and her successors as leader have presided over a Conservative Party split between Wets (who favoured a closer relationship with Europe) and the Dries (the original Eurosceptics). Now that the Brexit timetable has started and the end result edges closer, the Tories may find themselves split between softer Brexit and those who are keen for a more protectionist hard Brexit, whether they want to be or not.

The Conservative Party now faces a long summer of tough decisions. Mrs May's tenure is unlikely to last to 2019 when Brexit negotiations end, as suggested in an article by Channel 4's Gary Gibbons. Tories have a habit of removing ailing leaders, with mixed results. The party is shifting from within, as possible contenders for Mrs May's successor sound out Parliamentary colleagues. Old divisions within the party might start to re-emerge like dormant fault lines. The summer of 1976 is remembered for its intense heat and longevity. The London clay on which the city rests upon began to crack as the water boiled away. The summer of 2017 may cause cracks to emerge in the Tory party's facade. Can they stand the heat?

Monday, 20 February 2017

Things UKIP probably doesn't want to talk about before the Stoke-on-Trent by-election


Photo by Euro Realist Newsletter / CC BY

Stoke-on-Trent Central should be a piece of cake for UKIP this Thursday. It is something of a baptism of fire for new leader Paul Nuttall, who also happens to be the candidate for said seat. Labour are sliding to as low as 24% in some polls, with a new ICM one showing an astonishing 18-point lead by the Conservatives. Labour hasn't done this poorly since the bowels of the 2008-09 recession, just before it started its latest spell in opposition. Stoke-on-Trent Central is one of the most eurosceptic seats in the country, so why are UKIP floundering at the moment?


1.) Paul Nuttall's presence at Hillsborough is in the spotlight (for all the wrong reasons)


Mr Nuttall has claimed to have been present at the April 1989 disaster at Hillsborough, in which almost 100 people losts their lives and another 800 or so were badly injured. It was an incident which turned Liverpool against the Sun newspaper for its accounts of the event, which claimed fans were urinating on medics and picking pockets of victims, accusations which have now been seen by many as fabrications in stark contrast to the accounts of survivors themselves.

Paul Nuttall was aged 12 and has consistently claimed he was present at the stadium on the day of the disaster for much of his political career. Controversy flared up over a week ago, when the Guardian posted an article which investigated his story and presented evidence which appears to be at odds with it. Mr Nuttall's own MEP website even claimed he had "lost a close friend" on that day, but it has since emerged the article had been written by a press officer, who has since tendered her resignation. The entire website has since been closed for maintenance without explanation.

To make matters worse, UKIP donor Arron Banks attracted criticism for telling his Twitter followers that he was "sick" of hearing about the story, provoking many with the comment: "It was a disaster...not some sort of cultural happening". In the last few hours, two UKIP officials have been reported as having quit the party for what they termed Mr Nuttall's "crass insensitivity".

As of 20th February, Mr Nuttall's website remains "offline for maintenance"

2.) UKIP's own Twitter page has passed off a Bolton campaign picture as a Stoke by-election one







On 18th February, UKIP's official Twitter account posted a snap of what it claimed to be were a group of leafleters/general campaigners on the ground for the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election. However, eagle-eyed residents in Horwich, Bolton were quick to point out that the picture had apparently been taken in the carpark of the Macron Stadium in Bolton, some 50 to 60 miles north of Stoke-on-Trent.

It's perfectly understandable to find this point a bit nit-picky, but it does help to get the town name right for a campaign photograph. So far, it's not clear if the UKIP Twitter page has acknowledged the discepancy yet.

3.) Accusations concerning an incident involving a pensioner and a leafleter in Stoke-on-Trent emerging


Over the last couple of days, allegations have surfaced of an incident in the constituency between a 73-year-old resident and a man purported to be a UKIP leafleter on the ground. The man is alleged to have tried delivering the woman a leaflet, then he is alleged to have proceeded to have urinated on the house before the woman saw it on CCTV and went outside to confront him. A relative of the woman shared footage of the alleged incident on Facebook, and it has since been carried as a story on a couple of publications including the MirrorThomas Pride and Skawkbox.