Who's the Nasty Party now?

After hours of waiting, the Labour NEC has voted so that leader Jeremy Corbyn will be automatically included on any upcoming leadership ballot.

The Labour Party's very existence is at stake, this week. After hours of speculation from the rebels and the Corbynistas, the party's national executive committee finally decided to vote in favour of Mr Corbyn, with 18 votes to 14.

Some had believed the vote being a secret ballot might indicate a possible anti-Corbyn mood in the meeting, but as it turned out, the NEC were satisfied that  Mr Corbyn wasn't compelled to find 51 MPs and MEPs, in order to run for his own job again.

As indicated in the previous post, Labour's rules regarding a leadership challenge when there is no vacancy for the job make no mention of the leader themselves, instead choosing to say "challenger". Angela Eagle has already acquired the 51 nominations to ensure her own spot on the ballot, but it remains unclear what Owen Smith is deciding to do.

It all seemed set. Or was it? Once Mr Corbyn had left the meeting, reports emerged that a new vote had been made by the NEC, concerning the grounds on which members would be able to vote. 

It is now the rule that any members who joined after mid-January are deemed ineligible to vote,  and any members who signed up by paying £3 last summer will need to pay a heftier £25 fee. It's a move that will effectively whittle the eligible voter base down to the core pre-2015 members, if the new intake prove unable to sign up again or lose enthusiasm to do so.

Having apparently got what he wanted out of the day, Mr Corbyn left the NEC meeting in a chirpy mood, and later in the evening, Guardian journalist Benn Quinn filmed John McDonnell and Diane Abbott addressing a rally in Camden (view here). Mr McDonnell was filmed by Quinn saying the following:

"They have been plotting and conniving...the only good thing about it...as plotters, they're fucking useless..."

Diane Abbott, who was onstage with Mr McDonnell, is shown grinning, as she looks out at the crowd watching them. It feels like the "kind and gentle politics" motto that the Corbynites wanted to strive for has run out of legs to stand on. There's just no way the party can heal from such a toxic show of disapproval, when the upper echelons show such contempt for the democratically elected members.

Angela Eagle woke up on the morning of 12th July, to find her constituency office had been vandalised; a mystery assailant had thrown a brick through a window, and she has reportedly been offered police protection. Just let that sink in for a moment. You read that correctly: A British Member of Parliament is being offered police protection, simply for deciding to run against the opposition party leader. It's a phrase that feels unsettling to have to write, but that's how bad things have become.

In a Newsnight interview broadcast just a matter of minutes ago, Angela Eagle reiterated that she has been a Labour member for 40 years, and slammed Mr Corbyn over of bullying in the party, especially through social media, saying he has not shown leadership. She also added that:

"He is a protester; he's not a persuader of people"

As Labour continues to devour itself on the altar of post-Brexit mayhem, the Conservative government has got its act together, and is preparing to welcome our second female Prime Minister, Theresa May, into No. 10 in just a few hours time.

In an infamous 2002 Tory Party conference speech, Theresa May spoke of the perception of the Tory Party being the "Nasty Party". After a day like today, starting with a window shattered by a brick, most of the PLP being branded "fucking useless" and Twitter being fit to burst with vitriol yet again, it might be easy to dub Labour the recipient of such a mantle.

The Eighties strike back

A female Prime Minister, the Pound tumbling against the Dollar, a Labour Party riven with divisions and Rick Astley in the UK top 40 chart. The 1980s have come back, with a bang.

Theresa May is set to become our new Prime Minister on Wednesday evening, following the sudden departure of Andrea Leadsom from the Tory leadership contest.

The day was due to be dominated by the turmoil bubbling inside the Labour Party, with Angela Eagle launching a bid for the leadership at a press conference earlier today.

However, all this was blown out of the water, when whispers began to swirl about the fate of Andrea Leadsom's campaign to become Tory leader around midday today. 

An article published in the Times on 9th July appears to have been the catalyst for today's sudden turn of events: Times journalist Rachel Sylvester conducted an interview with Leadsom a few days ago, where she made the claim that "being a mum means having a very real stake in the future of our country".

Those words proved fatal, given that Theresa May had revealed in an interview with the Mail on Sunday over a week before that she and her husband wanted children but she was unable to. An article written following the Leadsom story, Rachel Sylvester commented that Leadsom's "suggestion that motherhood gave her a 'stake' in the future of the country was crashingly naive than calculatingly cruel".

Whatever Leadsom's reasoning was, it quite likely cost the Brexit faction its remaining shot at clinching No. 10, having lost first Boris Johnson, and then Michael Gove, following his so-called "knifing-in-the-front".

For the Tories, the future is clear; Theresa May will move into No. 10 by Wednesday, and markets are likely to cheer up, now that there won't be a seemingly endless leadership race for an entire summer. Today alone, the domestic-orientated FTSE 250 index rallied 3.3%, bolstered by Andrea Leadsom dropping out it seems.

Mr Cameron will likely visit the Queen after a last hurrah at PMQs, over 6 years after he started his job. Theresa May intends to respect the wishes of the 52% by delivering Brexit, perhaps by 2019-20. A whole new government department will be established especially to facilitate Brexit, headed by a pro-Brexit government minister.

The future for the Labour Party is a whole other kettle of fish. Differing legal advice has left some in a state of confusion over whether Jeremy Corbyn will be included on any leadership ballot or not.

The party's rule-book unhelpfully makes the matter open to interpretation:

"Where there is no vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers each year prior to the annual session of party conference..."

"In this case any nomination must be supported by 20% of the combined Commons members of the [parliamentary Labour party] and members of the [European parliamentary Labour party]. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void"

What is significant is the use of the word "may" rather than "shall" in the first sentence. It makes the 20% of MPs/MEPs bit seem optional, at a time when the party needs a more concrete idea of what constitutes a legitimate leadership bid. Mr Corbyn's allies could read this to mean he doesn't need nominations, and could just run again, by virtue of being leader.

What we know for sure is as follows: Angela Eagle is openly challenging Mr Corbyn for the leadership, and it's being reported that she received enough nominations, according to Iain McNicol, Labour's General Secretary. Owen Smith, who has had 2 shadow ministerial posts since 2012, is reportedly mulling over launching a bid of his own.

Such a move could be risky for the anti-Corbyn faction; it may split the vote and score a spectacular own goal. Of course, it might all be for nought, whatever machinations are put in Jeremy Corbyn's path; there's been another surge in Labour Party membership, taking it to about 515k people.

This new post-referendum surge may well be just more Corbynistas, joining to protect their leading light. If they give Mr Corbyn a resounding victory, the PLP is highly-likely to split. Owen Smith got into a high-profile Twitter spat with John McDonnell over a potential split, as evidenced below:

Len McCluskey, head of the massive Unite union insists Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere and Unison's Dave Prentis seconds that. However, according to a fresh YouGov poll of Labour-affiliated trade union members, 58% believe he should quit before the next election. 63% claim he is doing his job poorly, and out of those who want him to quit, 45% think he should leave as soon as possible.

In case Corbynistas were holding onto the belief that affiliates think Mr Corbyn has what it takes to become Prime Minister, they will be disappointed. 76% of respondents from this new YouGov poll also claim they don't believe Mr Corbyn will ever grace the threshold of No. 10, just as Theresa May is due to, come Wednesday evening.

More data on the YouGov poll is available here.

The Brexit Bloodbath

It's approaching two weeks since the most contentious vote in generations, and the leadership of the main political parties has been thrown up in the air like confetti.

Nigel Farage held a press conference this morning, in which he announced his decision to step down as leader of UKIP; in his most recent 6-year stint, he's revitalised the party, from the electoral despair of 2010, to the Brexit outcome he desired for years.

Cue thousands of Britons hoping the door doesn't hit him on the way out. Just another pain in the neck, who launched an escape pod from Terra Firma, after pressing the scorched-Earth button, like Boris.

Boris met his Waterloo last week at the hands of fellow Vote Leave ally Michael Gove; if there's one thing top-class political thrillers leave you asking, it's "who needs enemies, when the friends are like this?"

Loyalty on the battlefield has been no guarantee, in the final climb to the top here. The Prime Minister will soon be gone, and in his wake, he leaves the Tories divided among the Brexiteers and the modern-day wets. At present, Theresa May appears to be rallying more MPs behind her cause.

Michael Gove's treachery has done him no favours; so far, it's estimated he's only got the backing of 20 MPs or thereabouts; Theresa May has over 100. Her nearest rival is likely to be Andrea Leadsom, darling of the Leave campaign. 

Leadsom was elected to the HoC in 2010, and despite claims she's too inexperienced, she's actually been in Parliament longer than David Cameron was when he made a bid for the leadership. The likes of Nigel Farage are hoping for a Brexiter to lead the Tories from here, so it will be interesting to see what lengths her rivals go to, to poison members against her.

Labour would have the right to gloat, if it wasn't for the fact that most of the shadow cabinet seats are vacant. After last week's no-confidence vote, where 172 MPs voted against Mr Corbyn, there's been signs of necrosis setting into the party's high command.

Moderate MPs want Corbyn out. Corbyn reportedly considered going, after a humiliating PMQs last week, but now it appears his inner circle have encouraged him to live and fight another day. It's simply unsustainable for a potential party of government to be so disunited. It's all just a question of who goes first: the PLP rebels or the man at the top. Things could be messy.

The outcome that MPs are really not wanting to have to consider is a split, the thermonuclear option. It would be an admission that Labour has failed to come back from the abyss this time, after flirting with the militant tendency in the 1980s. We're likely to see the birth of a new centrist political project, if rebels decide their efforts are in vain. They might form an SDP/Liberal-style alliance with the Lib Dems, or even join them outright.

It would be a traumatic political event, but would be a step towards reflecting the political fault lines of the country more accurately. If the Tories choose a Brexiter to lead them into the autumn conference and beyond, UKIP will start to feel the pinch, despite having got the Brexit it always wanted. 

A more moderate leader would face sniping over not doing enough for Brexit. UKIP might pose a serious challenge, and risk unseating if they remain gridlocked for a long time.

Update

The following bit is a new development that came to light, just as this article was being polished off for publishing.

Andrea Leadsom reportedly gave a disappointing performance at the first Tory party hustings, in preparation for the leadership election. BuzzFeed's political correspondent Emily Ashton has just reported that an MP leaving the room after the hustings called her performance a "f***ing shambles".

All the leadership contenders were allotted 15 mins to address MPs, and Leadsom reportedly started to lose her audience 3 minutes into her speech. There was allegedly trouble concerning Leadsom and UKIP. BuzzFeed reports she was asked about links to the party 3 times.

The troubles may have arisen, when she reportedly spoke about emotional development and the frontal lobe of the brain, as well as claiming she would activate Article 50 immediately, only to go and say she'd delay it minutes later. These claims are made here.