Rise of the right-wing crazy - An American phenomenon

There's a new disease, running through the bloodstream of American politics. Meet the right wing crazies.

2016's GOP candidacy is still up in the air, with as many as 15 different people putting themselves forward. Here are some of the fruity, nutty or just plain insane facts about some of the contenders this year.

1.) Ted Cruz believes non-Christians should not be allowed to run for President

This echoes something a fellow candidate made, earlier in the campaign. Ben Carson had controversially alleged that Muslims shouldn't be entitled to run. He claimed Islam was not consistent with the US constitution.

The US constitution actually doesn't discriminate people from running, purely based on religious grounds. As long as you're a US citizen, born in the country, it should be perfectly fine.

This sad declaration by two candidates during the campaign is sad, because it makes it pretty clear that these two gentlemen would defend their right to religious freedom, at the expense of the freedom of others.

2.) Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal and Mike Huckabee attended a shockingly nasty event

At a conference on religious liberty in Iowa, these three GOP presidential candidates were in attendance. The proceedings were led by a radical Pastor, Kevin Swanson.

During a rant which makes you seriously question his sanity, Kevin Swanson yelled the following:

"It's not a gay time! These are people with sores!...don't carve happy faces on open, pussy sores!"

Swanson also made the controversial suggestion that America must repent, for doing something as sinful as...reading Harry Potter books!

In Swanson's view, readers must repent, as the Harry Potter books contain a gay character (Albus Dumbledore), who serves as a mentor to the young wizard.

3.) Donald Trump wants to build a big wall between the US and Mexico

Donald Trump has made no secret what his views on Mexicans are. At the launch of his campaign in June, Trump alleged that Mexicans coming to the States were "bringing drugs, crime and rapists" over from Mexico.

To remedy this problem, Trump has promised to build a "great, great wall". What a wonderful new idea.

If you don't like a country, you can just block them out with bricks, mortar and concrete. To put the icing on the cake, Trump would ask the Mexicans to pay for this great wall.

4.) Ben Carson really doesn't like answering questions about his personal life

Carson comes to the fray, as a former neurosurgeon, but he's started to become a natural, at evading questions.

After people started pointing out inconsistencies in the stories he told about his past, he's not seen keen to big it up anymore.

When asked about the subject, Carson suggested people "go jump in a lake" if they wanted to keep probing about his past, following last night's GOP debate.

Carson has made the mistake of not getting his story straight, before running for high office. He's also acting offended when he should be explaining the matter.

5.) Republican voters actually like Ben Carson and Donald Trump

It's hard to believe, but a significant amount of the Republican voter base actually imagine Trump or Carson facing the Democrats in 2016.

Trump has been consistently topping poll after poll, by a wide margin, since June. Ben Carson has caught up, and actually been leading in some polls, of all the candidates running.

The problem with both candidates is quite simple though: the United States has changed so much, since the last Republican was in the White House.

Voters are turning away from the Republicans, for their perceived lurch to the right, on issues like abortion, gay rights and racial tensions, at a time when the country as a whole is actually becoming more liberal.

The GOP is at risk of being locked out of the White House for the foreseeable future. Political purity can be an admirable quality, if you're standing up for policies that genuinely address concerns of the actual population.

Purity can become toxic, however, if a political party is mourning a rose-tinted world that never was.

Top 5 British Political Scandals

Some politicians go down in history, because they get to the top. Some are remembered because they get so far, and then fall even further. Some do both.

Here are a list of five truly shocking political scandals, spanning from the early 1960s to 2015.

1.) The Profumo Scandal (1963)

Christine Keeler - the woman who arguably brought down a government

One of the first major political scandals of the postwar years.

The West was locked in a stalemate with the Soviets. A group of cool-headed minds on both sides were all that kept Planet Earth from becoming a radioactive wasteland.

In this era of Mutually Assured Destruction, a government minister, called John Profumo held the spooky title, Minister for War. It was a role that had existed since the 1790s. Profumo's job was equivalent to the job done by the Secretary of State for Defence nowadays.

A house party in the summer of 1961 was where it all started. Viscount Astor, a wealthy Conservative MP-turned-peer had invited a load of big names in the world of politics and the arts, to his home, Cliveden House.

John Profumo was in attendance at this party, when he saw a young woman, frolicking in the swimming pool on the grounds of this lavish house.

Her name was Christine Keeler. She was a model, attending the party as a plus one, alongside close friend and socialite, Stephen Ward.

Keeler would engage in a short affair with John Profumo, soon afterwards, but there's no definitive information how long it actually was. However, controversy would later arise, when it was alleged Keeler had simultaneously been conducting an affair with a Soviet naval attaché, Yevgeny Ivanov.

If this was true, the government minister responsible for the security of the country was actually compromising it, all because of the company he chose to keep.

The scandal led to Profumo resigning, after essentially lying to the Commons about the affair. A trial also ensued, relating to Stephen Warrd being accused of living off immoral earnings (an old-fashioned way of saying prostitution).

Viscount Astor found himself dragged into the story too, and was even accused of having an affair with Mandy Rice-Davies, a friend of Keeler.

One of the most memorable moments of the Ward trial was when Astor's defence counsel insisted Astor had not conducted an affair with her, to which Rice-Davies was quoted as having said "Well, he would, wouldn't he?".

This riposte is so memorable (and often misquoted), because many believe it represented a shift in mood, from a stiff-upper lip society in the early 20th Century, to a less deferential one, in the 1960s; a more permissive Britain, where no guilty politician could bury their secrets any longer.

The Tory government failed to recover from the fallout of this scandal, as well as the fallout from a weak economy, in the early 1960s,

This Tory government was eventually ousted by Harold Wilson's rejuvenated Labour Party in October 1964. Some would go as far as to say, the Profumo Scandal was simply the straw that broke the camel's back.

2.) The Ousting of Margaret Thatcher (November 1990)

Margaret Thatcher's ousting in 1990 was quick and final - "Treachery with a smile on its face", she would later recall

Few moments of British political history are so brutal as the ousting of Margaret Thatcher, in November 1990.

Mrs Thatcher won three successive elections, curbed union powers and rolled back the state. These achievements were only really possible, thanks to the lack of a powerful opposition. The Labour Party slumped into a depressive episode, following the 1979 and 1983 election losses.

By the late 1980s, the government assumed (mistakenly) that their reforms had created a sustainable economic recovery. In actual fact, they had fueled a credit boom and a housing bubble.

The days surrounding Mrs Thatcher's political demise were dark ones indeed. The unsustainable boom had turned into a bust.

Mrs Thatcher had attempted to introduce the controversial Poll Tax, and she had alienated herself from her own government colleagues.

Mrs Thatcher could have quite probably clung onto power on into the 1992 election, if it wasn't for the fact that her own party had lost faith in her. They had launched a leadership bid against her. The move was highly unusual and unprecedented, in the post-war era.

In a move she would later describe as "treachery, with a smile on its face", Mrs Thatcher was approached by colleagues, and told that she probably could not actually win a second ballot for the party leadership.

On a chilly November morning in November 1990, Mrs Thatcher tearfully spoke to the press, announcing her resignation as Prime Minister and Tory leader. The Iron Lady had rusted away.

Mrs Thatcher and her husband Denis jumped into a waiting car, and in one photograph taken of her departure, Mr Thatcher can be clearly seen, giving one last look at the house she had called home, for 11 years, as tears stream from her eyes.

3.) John Major's "Back to Basics" campaign

John Major's "Back to Basics" campaign opened the Tories up to accusations of hypocrisy in the 1990s

John Major had the mammoth task of being the British Prime Minister who succeeded Mrs Thatcher. He had been risen through the ranks of the Conservative Party, since becoming an MP in 1979.

Mrs Thatcher's Iron Lady had been ditched in favour of a quite plain-speaking politician, who would have been well-suited to the era of Tory government in the 1950s.

However, John Major had assumed the role of PM at a time when deferential attitudes had been utterly exhausted. He lacked the charisma to re-energise his party, and prepare it for future government.

Spitting Image, a satirical puppet-Punch and Judy style programme, openly mocked politicians on a weekly basis. In her prime, Mrs Thatcher was depicted as having crazy boggly eyes.

In the more satire-driven times of the 1990s, John Major seemed a little bit like a grainy photocopy of a Tory leader.

He could make a speech to excite the country's conservative heartlands, but it just wasn't enough to win over the entire electorate. It was no surprise that Spitting Image decided to make his puppet completely grey.

Following a brutal recession, Major had only just scraped through and won the 1992 election.

The jubilation at the prospect of a fourth term for the Tories was short lived; by September, the UK had been forced out of the ERM, a currency system that served as a precursor to the Euro.

In a desperate bid to win back the electorate, John Major made a teeth-curling appeal to get Britain "Back to Basics", in the 1993 Tory party conference.

Major envisioned Britain in the year 2043; a Britain of "long shadows on cricket grounds...warm beer" and, to quote George Orwell, "old maids bicycling to holy communion...".

Major's words came back to haunt him and his government, when numerous scandals started to emerge, involving his own MPs. It would be fair to say Major was like a supply teacher, dealing with a rowdy class. He commanded little authority over his government.

Some Tory MPs found themselves caught in compromising sexual scandals. Others were accused of sleaze. The Tory party's deputy chairman resigned in 1994, after calling the Germans "warmongers".

History seems to have repeated itself for the Tories in the 1990s. It took them over twenty years to win another election outright. You'd expect the party faithful will have learned their lesson by now.

4.) MPs's expenses scandal (2009)

This scandal had been brewing in secret for many years. It was a testament to the Freedom of Information Act 2000.

Journalist John Ungoed-Thomas sent an FOI request to see MPs' expenses in the mid 2000s, and was followed by journalist/freedom of information campaigner Heather Brooke.

Intriguingly, MPs in the 2005-10 Parliament made attempts to exempt themselves from the FOI Act, in votes on the floor of the chamber.

By 2008, a tribunal decided that the expenses of 14 MPs could be published. In early 2009, Harriet Harman, the then-leader of the House of Commons, tabled a motion in the Commons, to try and prevent any further information being made public.

However, the tide of public opinion turned on Harman, Eventually, it was agreed that full disclosure would be made on 1st July 2009. However, the Daily Telegraph newspaper paid for an early scoop, and leaked the story in May.

One MP was revealed to have filed expenses for a duck house. Others had used theirs to fund second homes, and travel arrangements. In the runup to the 2010 general election, a phrase was swirling around, with newspapers dubbing this batch of MPs "the Rotten Parliament".

Some MPs were put on trial as a result of the scandal. It damaged the public's trust in Parliament, but was especially devastating for the incumbent Labour government, under Gordon Brown.

Brown never recovered his fortunes, and Labour suffered a devastating defeat in the following year's general election. Labour remains in opposition to this day, and trust in Parliament has yet to fully recover from this scandal.

5.) The "Call Me Dave" scandal

A story that has just started to fade from the day-to-day headlines is the publication of an authorised biography of David Cameron, satirically titled "Call Me Dave".

In conjunction with Sunday Times journalist, Isabel Oakeshott. Lord Ashcroft penned a book which made a series of controversial and highly questionable claims about the Prime Minister.

One such allegation involves a distasteful ritual involving the Prime Minister and a pig's head, when he was a student at Oxford University. Doubts have surfaced, however about the truth of the matter.

The ritual was alleged to have been needed for students to enter the so-called Piers Gaveston society.

However, those close to the Prime Minister, plus other commentators have been quick to repudiate claims that he was even a member of the Piers Gaveston society.

It's also doubted that such rituals even took place. Lord Ashcroft and Isabel Oakeshott insisted that a reliable source, a current government minister, who also went to Oxford, had approached them.

The pig head story is based on claims made by this mysterious source, that photographic evidence actually existed of the ritual, but it remains to be seen, if it even took place.

The scandal in this story isn't so much the allegations in the book itself. The scandal emerges from the fact that the biography sounds quite like a revenge piece.

Lord Ashcroft had provided the ailing Conservative Party with much support over the years, yet had not been given any senior ranking government jobs, when the Coalition was formed.

It is written in a similar vein to Valerie Trierweiler's book, "Merci Pour Ce Moment", in which French President Francois Hollande's ex-girlfriend made a serious of shocking allegations, after it had emerged he had allegedly conducted an affair with a French actress.

China's One-Child Policy (or Bye Bye Baby?)

Is it right for governments to decide how many children we can have?

China's decision to move away from the One-Child policy is a much-needed correction. Oh how ironic. A policy designed to prevent overpopulation is now being succeeded by a policy to spur population growth. However, just as China moves towards encouraging larger families, the UK government seems to be encouraging the opposite. Why is this? 

Since the earliest times, China has always represented a massive chunk of the world's total population. By the late 1970s, the Chinese government was alarmed at the rapid rate of population growth, and so it initiated one of the most controversial population control policies ever implemented.

The government enforced a One-Child Policy, although it was not quite so draconian as it seemed. Uttering the phrase "One Child Policy" gives you the impression that every single woman of child-bearing age is strictly forbidden to have more than one child, OR ELSE! 

In actual fact, the policy made sure that rural couples were exempt from the rule. Rural couples tend to be responsible for about two thirds of all children born in China. The policy is only really centred on the urban minority of the population, and as a general rule, urban dwellers choose to have smaller families anyway. As time wore on, the government loosened the rules. For example, it allowed couples to have a second child, if either of the parents had been a single child.

The policy was seen by some to be practically useless, given that China was already seeing a sharp fall in birthrates, in the decade prior to the One-Child Policy being announced.

Last week, the Xinhua News Agency announced the government's intention to scrap the policy altogether, in order to remedy a feared demographic problem, in the future.

Bye bye baby?

Just as China moves to save itself from demographic Armageddon, the UK appears to be doing the opposite, but in a far more subtle way. It might be bold to say so, but it really does seem as if the UK government is beginning to silently put policies in place, that support a two-child country.

As the Financial Times indicated in June, £12bn worth of planned cuts to welfare include limiting child benefits to households with one to two children in future. In other words, the government wants you to think long and hard, before going ahead, and having that third child.

But there's a big problem, that nobody seems to have actually acknowledged, when it comes to the UK's own demographic situation. The UK has, in effect, been a two-child country for over forty years. Displayed below is a chart, showing the average number of children a woman of childbearing age would expect to have during her lifetime, (England and Wales 1941-1972 and UK 1973-2015 provisional). Note the post-WW2 spike, the 1960s Baby Boom, the 1970s-1990s slump, and then the recent Millennial echo boom.

Source: Office of National Statistics

The horizontal blue line represents the 2-children-per-woman threshold. In order for a population to stay stable, the size of the next generation has to be equal to that of the preceding ones. Two children make up for the two parents. The UK's sub-replacement fertility rate has been in place since the mid-1970s, owing to the invention of the Pill, legalization of abortion and simply personal choice. People just don't feel like having as many kids as they did. If the UK had no net migration (which is not very likely), you would expect the UK population to stabilise and possibly decline in the coming decades. This is why net migration might actually be the UK's saving grace in years to come.

In short, a government policy to ensure households have 2 children may backfire spectacularly, and push already-low birthrates down to subterranean levels. 

Car-crash political interviews

Interviews can be terrifying experiences, for interviewers and interviewees alike. It's nice and easy, when you see casual conversations between two old friends in private places. However, televised interviews between politicians and journalists put people into glitzy, artificial environments. We expect them to behave as if everything's normal, when it really isn't. As these five cases show, sometimes the pressures of televised questioning can push reporters and politicians to breaking point.

1.) Angela Constance, Scottish National Party (The Sunday Politics, November 2015)

When appearing on a morning television show, it's probably best to ask someone whether you're going to be live on air, before the cameras actually roll. In the middle of a seemingly ordinary live studio interview, Scottish National Party MSP Angela Constance accidentally referred to events in the year "Twenty thousand and twelve", before correcting herself. She had, of course, actually meant to say the year 2012. It was an innocent slip of the tongue; people make mistakes on TV all the time. There was actually nothing to complain about here, you can't expect someone to keep it up, the whole time they're on air.

The interview would have surely faded into obscurity, were it not for the fact that Constance wrongly assumed it was a pre-recorded segment. As a result, she made a point about fluffing her words, and immediately requested the interviewer if they could do a retake. To her horror, you never swim in the same river twice, when speaking on live television. Cue a look of controlled horror flashing over Constance's face.

2.) Chloe Smith grilled by Paxman (Newsnight, June 2012)

It was June 2012; a troublesome summer for the coalition government. The budget back in March 2012 had started being dubbed an "omnishambles", a word borrowed from popular satirical show "The Thick of It".

Some of the controversies it spawned included a "pasty tax", and even a "caravan tax". It wasn't long before the government was forced into a series of awkward U-turns, one by one. The Omnishambles budget died a slow but painful death, by a thousand paper cuts.

In June 2012, junior minister Chloe Smith was invited to be interviewed by Jeremy Paxman, live on Newsnight. This followed a perceived U-turn over fuel duty, by Chancellor George Osborne. What happened next made grim viewing. Over the course of the interview, it became clear that Smith had been sent off to the interview, in place of the Chancellor himself, without the necessary facts to make her case.

When asked on her own views about the U-turn, Smith proved to be moderately evasive, but Paxman was having none of it. It was broken up, only by an abrupt but short instance, when Smith grappled with a frog in her throat, as evidenced below.

The message of the story: if you make a controversial decision in government, have the bravery to stand by it. Don't shirk responsibilities, by forcing a junior minister answer for it, in your place. It's just cruel.

3.) Alastair Campbell incenses Adam Boulton (Sky News, May 2010)

The 2010 general election was a close-run contest. It left the UK with its first hung parliament, since the 1970s. Political loyalties had seemingly split the country right down the middle. The bruised Labour government was led by a Prime Minister, who had failed to actually win an electoral mandate. The opposition party was led by an MP who was criticised for being a career politician.

In a rare moment of interview madness, Sky News presenter Adam Boulton lost composure, when conducting a live interview with former Labour spin doctor, Alastair Campbell. Campbell slyly sent Boulton into an angry mood, telling him to "calm down". If you know anything about people, you'll know that the last thing you tell an incensed person is to calm down, especially in a patronizing tone. 

Understandably, Boulton exploded in fury at Campbell, curiously jabbing his finger at himself. "Don't keep saying what I think!" he exclaimed. From the way this interview went, it's highly doubtful either of the two men will be on each others' Christmas card lists anytime soon.

4.) Chuka Umunna walks out of interview with Dermot Murnaghan (January 2015)

Before his short-lived bid as a Labour leadership candidate, Chuka Umunna was making a name for himself, as the Shadow Business Secretary. In this rocky interview, Sky News presenter Dermot Murnaghan stealthily switched the topic of conversation towards the issue of radicalization and extremism in Britain. 

A senior government minister had written a public letter on the subject, and it entered into dicussion. Mr Umunna made it clear to Mr Murnaghan that he had not read the letter in question, and was not in a position to speak about it yet.

Murnaghan made the mistake of suggesting that Mr Umunna could return half an hour later, to continue the conversation, once he had read the letter. When Mr Umunna slammed Murnaghan for being "unfair", Murnaghan quipped "So you're not going to speak, until you get the party line, right?". Umunna responded, by flapping his hand in the air, as if to swat an imaginary mosquito, before walking out of the interview.

5.) Sarah Palin speaks with Katie Couric (PBS, September 2008)

Nothing quite defined Sarah Palin's image in the minds of millions of people, like her interview with US journalist Katie Couric, at the height of the 2008 presidential election campaign. Sarah Palin was the then-governor of Alaska. 

She had just been chosen as the running mate to veteran Republican presidential candidate, John McCain. People just had no idea what she would be like on the campaign trail, of the most heated presidential campaign since the 1980s. It seemed as if she had been conjured out of nowhere.

In an interview later parodied by a sketch on Saturday Night Live ("I can see Russia from my house!"), Couric probed the Alaskan governor on comments she had previously made about Alaska's proximity to Russia. 

In a previous interview with another interviewer, Palin had implied that Alaska being so close to Russia was a valid form of foreign policy experience, in and of itself. Couric went further, also asking what Mrs Palin's reading habits had been.

In response to the comments about Russia and Alaska, Palin said with some satisfaction: "As Putin rears his head, and comes into the airspace of the United States of America, where do they go? It's Alaska...". 

Palin's answer to Couric on the subject of her past reading habits attracted further ridicule. Couric asked "What newspapers and magazines did you regularly read, before you were tapped for this...to stay informed and to understand the world...what specifically?" Palin responded hastily, saying "Erm...all of 'em...any of 'em...I have a vast variety of sources..."

The casual manner by which Governor Palin answered the questions led many to question whether she would make a sound Vice President. It's funny to note the hand gesture Governor Palin employed, when speaking about Russia. It's almost as if the audience's votes are buzzing around her face, and she's desperately trying to grab them, before they fly away.

Sources

1) Angela Constance interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnQT2ypxF7A

2.) Chloe Smith interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqiFr0uppVk

3.) Alastair Campbell interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZKmWdgiAq0

4.) Chuka Umunna interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmkRwJ2f8z0

5.) Sarah Palin interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nokTjEdaUGg

Tax Credits and the Cameron Legacy - Interview with Dr Rupa Huq MP

Last week, Labour launched an opposition campaign in Parliament, in response to government proposals, to cut tax credits. Labour lost the vote held in the Commons on the 20th, 295 votes to 317. The government plan to limit the availability of Child Tax Credits to families who have one or two children. Last night saw a dramatic reversal in fortunes, as the Chancellor's proposals were effectively put on ice by the Upper House. Just after Labour's defeat in the Commons last week, I sat down with Dr Rupa Huq, MP for Ealing Central and Acton, to discuss the matter in detail.

Interview with Dr Rupa Huq MP (23rd October 2015)

It's a busy Friday afternoon, at one of Labour's Ealing surgeries. Visitors sit patiently in a reception hall downstairs, waiting their turn. Upstairs, in an office, strewn with stacked red plastic chairs and party leaflets, Dr Rupa Huq MP recounts a tale. "I joined the Labour Party in...the autumn of 1990". One of the most inspiring moments of her formative years was a famous speech made in the Eighties by the then-Labour Party leader, Neil Kinnock. Dr Huq recalls a famous speech he gave with vigour, as if it was yesterday. She is clearly appreciative of Mr Kinnock's efforts as leader. "He did a lot of rebuilding of the Labour Party". It would be fair to say these fractures seem to have returned, but Dr Huq expresses a hope for healing again. "We need to be disciplined and stay together as a party".

Dr Huq has was elected MP of Ealing Central and Acton, back in May, defeating Conservative opponent Angie Bray. The seat is only five years old, but Dr Huq is proud to be the new constituency's first Labour representative in Parliament "It's been a steep learning curve", she tells me."I went up by 13% on what my predecessor had". Dr Huq's success at the ballot box is tempered by the outcome of the election, across the country as a whole. If all Labour MPs had enjoyed the poll boost she received, Labour would have formed the next government. "I never dreamt that I would be an opposition MP", she remarks.

However, Dr Huq has not lost hope. Far from it. It has only galvanized her resolve. "There's more that we can do as a Labour Party in opposition than I thought we could". In her speech to the Commons on the night of the vote on tax credits, Dr Huq made an impassioned speech, in which she warned that as many as 6,500 children in her constituency would suffer from the proposed cuts. Those affected won't actually be notified until just before Christmas, which led to Dr Huq described the government as "Scrooge-like". Despite her party's Commons defeat on the tax credits, Dr Huq is able to see through the government spin, and insists the government's victory was not as convincing as it seemed.

"They won the vote because of the arithmetic, but it's not over yet...I'm hopeful", she adds. How right she would end up proving to be, last night. The arithmetic was inverted, into order to put the tax credit plans on ice, because the Conservatives don't make up a majority in the House of Lords. Instead, Lib Dem, Labour and Crossbench peers (and Lords Spritual) have teamed up to vote the idea down.

Dr Huq is concerned, however by the fact that her party has a new Conservative majority government to contend with in the Commons, and this might just be the first skirmish of many. "There are some good people in there". Heidi Allen is one such example that Dr Huq chooses to mention, but one is left with the disappointing impression that Allen is the exception, not the rule. "At least their wings were clipped a bit by the Lib Dems, last time". Dr Huq claims that the sweeping changes of the Thatcher era inspired her to enter into politics in the first place. The Cameron era, in her view, is far worse. "I think he's had a disastrous record. We still have a deficit". To date, the UK is still running a budget deficit, even though they planned to erase it entirely and balance the books by the 2015 election.

Dr Huq's next comment is particularly striking. One of the things David Cameron tried to do, to soften the Conservatives' image in the eyes of the electorate was to negate Mrs Thatcher's denial in such a thing as society. "We're all in it together" was the motto, and we were all supposed to get along splendidly, in the Big Society (or Big Soc to be frivolous). Dr Huq voices the frustration of many when she makes the following canny observation: "They stopped saying 'we're all in this together', because it's patently untrue". By the time I've returned home a few hours later, a quick search of the 2015 Tory manifesto proves Dr Huq right. The phrase is nowhere to be seen. By this point, I wish I had asked, when did they stop saying it?

"This government is doing much more extreme things than Mrs Thatcher ever did...Their whole mantra is 'Long Term Economic Plan, but even they cringe when they say it". It's all just a question of how long it is, until the next recession, before this disposable motto is consigned to the dustbin of nice-sounding but actually quite empty phrasing, it would seem. "I think they've been a disaster, and they should be ashamed of themselves", Dr Huq concludes. The facts would seem to back this assertion up. We must not forget, the whole movement against the welfare cuts in the House of Lords springs from the fact that these cuts were promised in the Tory manifesto from earlier in the year. One opinion poll, published by YouGov, suggests that 46% of all voters believed the proposal was unfair, compared to just 28% who thought it was fine.

What certainly seems to have happened here is that the Chancellor has gravely overestimated his abilities, and that the government's reputation is somewhat scuffed, as a result of this defeat. My interview with Dr Huq was incredibly insightful, in this regard. It was the first interview I've ever conducted properly, and it was a privilege to be able to sit down and talk with her last week. It is just the first of many that I plan to do, for this blog.

Until next time,

P

Dr Rupa Huq, the first Labour MP for Ealing Central & Acton

Sources

1.) Dr Huq's speech to the House of Commons, on the tax credit cuts (20th October 2015)

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmhansrd/cm151020/debtext/151020-0004.htm#15102055000825

2.) Tax credits opinion poll, conducted by YouGov (21st-23rd October 2015)

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gtqhxwneyj/YouGovResults_151022_TaxCredits.pdf

Brexit - What do Londoners think?

In a matter of hours, Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, is expected to use a speech to outline the financial implications of a British exit (or Brexit) from the European Union. It's still very unclear when the actual referendum will be held. Some speculate it could come as soon as next spring, while others claim it might not be until late 2017.

There's no time like the present, so my colleague Diana and I took to the streets of Central London, the other day, to see what Londoners make of it all.

Here is a link to Diana's own blog post. We shared the interview transcripts for the day, so that explains why the story is duplicated somwhat.

https://wrytershaven.wordpress.com/2015/10/21/londoners-take-on-brexit/

London speaks

It's a chilly lunchtime in Regents Street. The pavements are awash with commuters and tourists, and the roads ooze the usual hubbub of traffic. A flossy store opens its doors for the day. One staff member casually admits having not voted at the general election, back in May,
and her Italian store manager jumps in. The European project is akin to some sort of "mafia", he asserts. Britain was better off, not joining the Euro, he insists, and he tells us why.

His fellow Italians are now poorer than they were when Italy joined the Euro, he explains. He is unable to say how, but he is convinced something foul is afoot, especially given the contrasting success of the German economy. The store manager has a more confident view on Britain's future. Citing British history, he is adamant that Britain is able to define itself outside the EU.

Meanwhile, outside a trendy pub, sales manager Ryan is enjoying a pint and a cigarette. "We will stay in" he says, without hesitation. He collects his thoughts for a moment, holding his cigarette off to the side. Remaining assured, he continues, "No one's really prepared to upset the apple-cart". He insists repeatedly that there is a lack of transparency about both sides of the referendum argument. Despite this, he's convinced that the British public are reluctant to do something so radical.

Whatever the date of the referendum, the polls are showing modest support to stay in the EU. One of the latest polls (linked below), provided by ICM Unlimited, shows 44% favour staying, 38% want out, and another 18% remain undecided. It's still far too early to say which way the undecideds will swing. What I can say with great certainty is that there will be great uncertainty for the duration of the campaign.

Sources

1. ICM Unlimited poll (dated 16th-18th Oct 2015)
Available at: https://gallery.mailchimp.com/fbcf81e4dd2761d48aba0b6da/files/Oct_19th_01.pdf

The Fiscal Charter - The Next Cuts are the Deepest

The year is 2020. It's election year; David Cameron stood down as Tory leader in the spring of 2019, and in the ensuing leadership election, Chancellor George Osborne won convincingly. The Tories head into the election, with a fresh-faced new leader. What about dear old Labour? Poor Jeremy Corbyn didn't last long. Was a proper Julius Caesar-style coup. "The Ides of Corbyn" they call it. All in vain, because the guy who ousted him didn't last long. Labour has become brutalised, and purge after purge has left it weary and hungry for power.

Now they have their third leader in just five years. Whatshisname or whatshername. They actually seem to have a chance of winning this time round. Keep it up, Leader X, and watch out, Mr Osborne. The election's not in the bag just yet.

The UK economy seems to be humming along at a modest speed. Despite troubles in Eurozone (yes, still sluggish), things are going swimmingly. Except one thing is different; the budget deficit: it's gone! Whatever happened to it? In the weird and wacky election year that is 2020, deficits have gone out of style, don't you know?

The Fiscal Charter, which just passed in Parliament a matter of hours ago is an ambitious and potentially dangerous plan to make austerity a permanent fixture on the British economic agenda:

"In normal times, once a headline surplus has been achieved, the Treasury’s mandate for fiscal policy is: a target for a surplus on public sector net borrowing in each subsequent year"
(Charter for Budget Responsibility, Autumn 2015 update)

Not content with trying to reduce the budget deficit to zero, George Osborne hopes to go further. He intends to move the budget into surplus by the time of the 2020 election. Then, to make Labour really cry, he wants to make budget surpluses the gold standard for "normal times", whatever those are.

"The new targets will apply during ‘normal times’. If annual real growth in the UK economy is less than 1% the OBR will judge there to have been a significant negative shock, and the economy will be out of normal times....If the OBR judges that a negative shock has occurred, or will occur over the forecast period, the fiscal targets will be suspended."
(BRIEFING PAPER Number 05657, 13 October 2015)

As seen above, there is a caveat. If the economy is hit by, say, a surge in commodity prices (as in 2008-11) or the Eurozone Crisis takes a new and deadly turn, an economy growing at 2% to 3% a year could end up in recession. Once it drops below 1% growth, the Fiscal Charter essentially gets suspended, because "normal times" are officially over. In this low growth period, governments would have free rein to run a deficit, if needs be.

In the chart below, I have presented data showing government expenditure as a percentage of GDP, from 1900 to the present day. The recent peak is the depth of the 2008-09 recession, and you can see how the 2010-15 austerity rounds have brought it down a smidgen since then. The red line seen in the chart represents roughly 35.2%, the level at which George Osborne hopes to leave government expenditure, when David Cameron potentially hands him the keys to No10. The cuts being put into place between now and 2020 will trim the state back to levels not seen since the 1930s.

Source: Bank of England - Three Centuries of Data

This brings me to the concluding points of this post. The Conservatives, buoyed by recent electoral success, believe now is the chance to cut the state back to levels not seen since the 1930s (before the NHS even existed). Labour is suffering a violent electoral defeat spasm. The Conservatives have effectively use the Fiscal Charter vote a few hours ago, to sow division within the Labour Party. It seems to have worked. Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell changed his mind, and decided to try and oppose the Charter, but now the Tories will be able to accuse Labour of being spendthrift.

The result has been decisive. The Charter just passed through the Commons, 320 to 258. 21 Labour MPs abstained, disobeying Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell.

The Chancellor is reaching back into his bag, and pulling out the austerity scissors. He moves in. "Back for more, eh?", he says. "Don't worry...This won't hurt a bit..."

Sources

1.) http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Lords/2015-09-14/HLWS187/

2.) http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05657#fullreport

3.) Government expenditure data provided by the Bank of England
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Pages/onebank/threecenturies.aspx