This week's vote by MPs on the Prime Minister's deal has generated a lot of buzz but very little progress. Just over two months to go, but no sign of a breakthrough. The deadlock continues...
Theresa May's Brexit proposals are experiencing something of a death by a thousand papercuts. Her so-called Chequers deal was met with resignations from her Cabinet in a mere matter of hours. A much-anticipated vote on the deal was originally pencilled in for December, but the Prime Minister realised the numbers weren't on her side, opting to delay it until the new year.
When the vote finally came, Mrs May's government suffered the largest defeat on a vote for a sitting goverment since records began. An eye-watering 432 MPs rejected Mrs May's offer, compared to just 202 supporting. As the Speaker would say, "the Noes have it, the Noes have it". In previous eras of political history, such a defeat would have likely led to the resignation of the Prime Minister, but in the post-referendum world, such a defeat seems like a mere statistic. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn tabled a motion of no confidence in the government, but Parliament resoundingly rejected it. Lib Dem leader Vince Cable has since stated that his MPs would not support such a vote again, accusing Mr Corbyn of playing games.
Mrs May invited MPs of all parties to consult her about thoughts on Brexit, but Mr Corbyn abstained from taking part, urging Mrs May to take the so-called No Deal option off the table. As a quick reminder, the No Deal option would see the UK exiting the EU on March 29th with no fixed agreement, requiring the UK to fall back onto WTO rules on trade. It is a preferred option for many Eurosceptics, but critics deride the idea, believing it will result in unnecessary economic turmoil.
What next?
The so-called "Meaningful Vote" this week was the government's attempt to seal the withdrawal process, and has its roots in a constitutional law case at the Supreme Court (known as the Miller Case), which resulted in a number of national newspapers deriding the Supreme Court for ruling in favour of Gina Miller and a number of other claimants.
Parliament's decision to snub Mrs May's offer has been met with rejoicing in some circles, as some believed it never went far enough or that Brexit shouldn't even be happening. Mrs May succeeded in uniting Remainers and Brexiteers against herself, as she tried to forge a third way that seemed to defy political gravity. Mrs May might seem somewhat more secure in her position, considering that her own party's MPs are unable to trigger a new leadership ballot until next December and that support for another No-Confidence vote is weak.
However, her failure to convince MPs to go along with her deal has fundamentally undermined her authority, and although she remains Prime Minister, she is compelled to oversee the conclusion to the Brexit process in the next few months, whether it results in the UK leaving or exiting the EU.
The next big crunch time moment for the government comes on Monday, when Mrs May is expected to unveil her Plan B to Parliament, after they compelled her to. Parliament was concerned that Mrs May would try to run down the clock, so the next few hours will be an indication of Mrs May's abilities to improvise.
A second referendum remains distant as an option at present, as the parties attempt to perform a complicated dance around voters, attempting not to tread on anyone's feet. According to a new poll, voters seemed to have moved towards the idea that the UK should actually remain in the EU now. As the clock ticks down, it becomes increasingly likely that unresolved disputes in Westminster will probably result in Article 50 being extended.
Such a move would trigger the return of former UKIP leader Nigel Farage to the political arena. In an interview on BBC News, Mr Farage announced that he would seek to stand in the European Elections, something that the UK might actually have to hold if Article 50 is indeed delayed past the end of March 2019.
Any perceived attempt to delay, derail or ultimately dissolve Brexit will result in some kind of reaction from the Eurosceptic wing of the electorate, but it might not necessarily be from the most obvious place. Mr Farage publicly quit UKIP in 2018, and is widely regarded by some as the face of Brexit. Watch this space for a potential new Eurosceptic party.
Parliament's decision to snub Mrs May's offer has been met with rejoicing in some circles, as some believed it never went far enough or that Brexit shouldn't even be happening. Mrs May succeeded in uniting Remainers and Brexiteers against herself, as she tried to forge a third way that seemed to defy political gravity. Mrs May might seem somewhat more secure in her position, considering that her own party's MPs are unable to trigger a new leadership ballot until next December and that support for another No-Confidence vote is weak.
However, her failure to convince MPs to go along with her deal has fundamentally undermined her authority, and although she remains Prime Minister, she is compelled to oversee the conclusion to the Brexit process in the next few months, whether it results in the UK leaving or exiting the EU.
The next big crunch time moment for the government comes on Monday, when Mrs May is expected to unveil her Plan B to Parliament, after they compelled her to. Parliament was concerned that Mrs May would try to run down the clock, so the next few hours will be an indication of Mrs May's abilities to improvise.
A second referendum remains distant as an option at present, as the parties attempt to perform a complicated dance around voters, attempting not to tread on anyone's feet. According to a new poll, voters seemed to have moved towards the idea that the UK should actually remain in the EU now. As the clock ticks down, it becomes increasingly likely that unresolved disputes in Westminster will probably result in Article 50 being extended.
Such a move would trigger the return of former UKIP leader Nigel Farage to the political arena. In an interview on BBC News, Mr Farage announced that he would seek to stand in the European Elections, something that the UK might actually have to hold if Article 50 is indeed delayed past the end of March 2019.
Any perceived attempt to delay, derail or ultimately dissolve Brexit will result in some kind of reaction from the Eurosceptic wing of the electorate, but it might not necessarily be from the most obvious place. Mr Farage publicly quit UKIP in 2018, and is widely regarded by some as the face of Brexit. Watch this space for a potential new Eurosceptic party.
No comments:
Post a Comment